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Its Hard To Tell How Good NFL Teams Are At The Draft

Just as with career length, players taken earlier in the draft are much more likely to be honored as All-Pros. And the distinction between the first round and the remainder of the draft is impressive: About a quarter of all first-rounders who make the NFL find their way on to an All-Pro team, compared with roughly 10 percent for second-round picks. Even within a round, earlier picks tend to do better; for every additional pick in the first 100 selections, a player sees his chances of making an All-Pro team decline by about half a percentage point.7To get the slope of this line, we fit a local regression curve to the pick-by-pick data. This finding is similar to Chase Stuart’s research on the correlation between draft position and Pro-Football-Reference’s Approximate Value metric.When you look at these results by position, however, some players appear to benefit more than others from the reputation that comes with a high draft pick. Linebackers and offensive linemen, for example, are among the positions most likely to see first-rounders named to an All-Pro team, and they’re also among the most difficult positions to judge statistically.8Line play is perhaps the hardest part of the game to judge on an individual level, and a linebacker’s role — and thus his stats — can vary wildly depending on his team’s scheme. (Not to mention the leeway given to league stat-trackers when handing out “assisted tackles” to star linebackers.) It’s possible that teams find it easier to assess the potential of players at those positions, making it more likely that they’ll draft players who go on to become stars. But it’s also possible that players with good pedigrees and name recognition are being given preferential treatment when awards are granted, in the absence of meaningful performance data (like what exists for offensive skill players) to challenge our perceptions.Perhaps tellingly, the one position that doesn’t show a strong tendency for first-round picks to turn into All-Pros is quarterback. That might mean good quarterbacks are especially hard to identify, but it also may not be a coincidence that we have better, more granular performance data for quarterbacks than any other position, even compared with other offensive “skill players.” With more data, the media members who decide All-Pro status are better at differentiating between good and bad performers without having to resort to prior information such as draft position. And it follows that they may not be doing that for positions with less data.With all this uncertainty, teams are increasingly finding roles for players who enter the league outside the orderly stratification of draft day. Although undrafted players rarely persist on NFL rosters for very long — their average career length has declined more severely than drafted players in recent years9In corrected follow-up analyses to that article, we found that average career length fell by 0.5 years from 2008 to 2013 for undrafted players, compared with a decline of 0.3 years for drafted players over the same timeframe. — the league is churning through more players than ever before, and the overall pool of undrafted players has never been larger. According to our research, the number of undrafted players on NFL rosters increased from 497 players in 2005 to 746 in 2014 — a 50 percent increase.10The 2011 collective bargaining agreement expanded maximum training-camp roster sizes from 75 to 90, increasing the number of players a team gets to look at each summer.Criticisms of NFL draft decision-making usually focus on outliers such as Tom Brady infamously being selected with a sixth-round pick, but studies consistently show that teams do a solid job of sorting talent by pick and by round. At the same time, however, that skill varies substantially depending on a player’s position — and therefore the amount of data we have to judge individual performance. In the absence of better data, this means we still don’t really know how much of a crapshoot the draft is, no matter how much we study it.CORRECTION (April 28, 2:40 p.m.): An earlier version of the chart in this article gave an incorrect description of the data. The chart shows players drafted since 1990, not just those drafted since then who retired between 1990 and 2013.Disclosure: Author Zach Binney works as an analyst for an NFL team. From NFL front offices to fan message boards, the amount of time spent arguing over which players teams should draft is mind-boggling. Ahead of the 2016 draft — which begins tonight — the prospect-focused site WalterFootball.com, for example, has compiled 315 mock drafts from across the internet. And apparently it’s been a slow year; in 2013, it collected 618.Such obsessive study would be unnecessary if the right answers were obvious. They rarely are. So some observers have called the draft a “crapshoot,” but things are more complicated than that, too. There’s plenty of data to suggest that the draft acts like an efficient market and that when a player is picked speaks volumes about what kind of career he will have. We studied it ourselves, looking for evidence that teams know what they’re doing. But every step of the way, we also found reasons to believe that many of the measures used to quantify a draft pick’s success contain flaws — some relating to draft position itself — that may be unavoidable for now.For our draft research, we used information from Pro-Football-Reference.com for players who were drafted in 1990 or later, made the NFL1Playing in at least one regular season game. and retired before 2013.2No special reason we picked 1990. To maintain consistency, we excluded players from before 1994 who were drafted in rounds after the seventh. First, we looked at the most basic measure of NFL success — the average length of a player’s career — based on the round in which he was drafted.3Career length was measured from the first year a player appeared in at least one regular season game to the last year he appeared in at least one regular season game, counting both years as full. No surprises here: The higher the draft pick, the longer a player will stick around in the NFL. First-rounders last a year longer than second-rounders, and the same goes for second-rounders compared with third-rounders. The gaps between rounds narrow slightly in the latter half of the draft, but a seventh-round pick like Mr. Irrelevant, the last pick of the NFL draft, can expect a career just under half as long as the average first-rounder.This is evidence that teams are getting better talent in earlier rounds. And these different career lengths can’t be explained away by different positions being drafted in different rounds: Aside from quarterbacks being more common in the first round4They make up about 8 percent of picks in round one, versus 4 percent in later rounds. and special teamers being more common later in the draft,5They’re taken with fewer than 1 percent of picks in the first two rounds and at about 3 percent in rounds six and seven. the positional breakdowns are remarkably similar across rounds.But there are several issues with using career length to measure draft success. One is that it’s undeniable that early-round draft picks are given more opportunities than most players. In addition to whatever real (or perceived) talent advantage allowed them to be picked highly, first-round picks are lavished with extra coaching and playing time not afforded to lower-status players, likely helping their careers last longer. Although NFL teams have a very vested interest in winning, it can be difficult to know when to give up on a highly touted prospect, particularly if the decision makers who selected him are still in place. This, in turn, makes it hard to tell how much of the longevity advantage of higher picks is earned and how much is a consequence of merely being picked so highly.Career length isn’t the only measure whose flaws can hamstring player evaluation. As another proxy for NFL success, we can use appearances on the All-Pro team, which honors the best players at each position in a given season.6While the Pro Bowl is the official All-Star event of the NFL, it suffers from some serious roster inflation, leading to the listing of more than a hundred players per year and watering down the quality of what constitutes an excellent player. read more

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Care for your skin before beauty sleep

first_imgSleep is important for your beauty, but so is a proper skincare regime. Use a highly restorative night cream, which will help moisturise and protect your skin while you take rest, say experts. Face cleansers: Regular skin cleansing at night is critical to maintaining a healthy skin. A clean and dirt-free face helps keep pores open and aids the skin to breathe better. Restore the skin’s natural balance by using cleansers made with Ayurvedic ingredients such as aloe vera, turmeric, honey that leave the skin clean, hydrated and nourished.Moisturise: Moisturising should be an essential step in your night skincare regime. It helps in repairing your skin, keeping it soft and prevents it from sagging. Apply a cream that has natural and nourishing ingredients like kokum butter and honey, especially for hands and feet before going to sleep at night.Under eye gel: The area under the eyes is the first to show signs of ageing. Apply an under-eye gel every night before going to bed to reduce puffiness, wrinkles and dark circles under the eyes.Lip balms: An effective lip balm keeps moisture in and protects lips from dryness and cracking. Pick a lip balm that is made with natural ingredients such as ghee and almond oil, that will help heal, condition and keep your lips soft and supple.Dark circles make your skin tone look uneven. Avacado and almonds are not only good for your health but for your eyes too, apply their oils and wake up with puffy-less eyes and reduced dark circle; with regular application, say bye-bye to them.Sleep on silk pillow: A silk night suit is an excellent choice but a silk pillowcase will be even better. Silk is easier on your face and your hair, as it reduces split ends and gives you a crease-free face in the morning.Let your skin breathe in and breathe out: One mistake most people make is sleeping with their make-up on. Not only is it unhealthy for your skin but there is a big chance that it might lead to breakouts and skin dehydration. It is extremely essential to remove your make-up before sleeping for a rejuvenated skin.CTM process: After you are done with cleansing and toning, use a light moisturiser for nourishment, then use nourishing serum and a night cream post that. For night, you need products with more nourishing ingredient and no SPF involved.Pamper your hands and feet: Beauty is not only about your face. It is achieved when the entire body feels great. Give your hands and feet the care they deserve by moisturising them before hitting the bed. Nourishment is essential for a happy and healthy body.last_img read more

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6 Mistakes Smart People Make When Hiring a Virtual Assistant

first_img Opinions expressed by Entrepreneur contributors are their own. 6 min read Attend this free webinar and learn how you can maximize efficiency while getting the most critical things done right. Register Now » September 13, 2017 “Hiring people is like making friends. Pick good ones, and they’ll enrich your life. Make bad choices, and they’ll bring you down,” says Jason Fried, the founder of Basecamp.Fried is a guy who knows what it takes to build an online team. No matter what your ambitions are, your role as an entrepreneur is to lead and grow one.Related: 15 Useful Tech Tools for Your BusinessFor some, this involves building a large empire. For others, it’s a case of surrounding yourself with a small (but valuable) team. Either way it requires you to hire people, and in today’s online driven world, this leads many to virtual assistants, freelancers and location independent workers.The cost, small.The opportunity, vast.The dangers, rife.Even smart and successful entrepreneurs make hiring mistakes, but you can improve your odds by listening to the advice of those who have been there and done it. I asked six successful people to share their biggest tip for building a virtual team.1. Know where to start.Not only has Chris Ducker built a successful online brand in Youpreneur, he’s one of the early pioneers of the virtual workforce movement. He’s built several online teams for his own business, and helped hundreds of others do the same.”To save yourself time and money, create your three lists of freedom: Things you hate doing every day, things you can’t do yourself and things you shouldn’t be doing. This creates a blueprint of what your virtual team should work on, and allows you to effectively manage it.”A common issue Ducker has found is that people struggle with when hiring a virtual assistant is where to begin. These three lists help you hone in on what your team should work on, saving you both time and money.Related: 25 Creative Ways to Promote Your App For Free2. Don’t leave your VA to get on with their work — insist on a daily update.As the founder of Mr. Outsource and the bestselling author of Never Work Again, Erlend Bakke specialized in building successful virtual teams. Communication is important for all entrepreneurs, but when you work with people across the globe, it’s even more so. You need to know what your team is doing, but not to the point where you micromanage them. A daily update proves valuable to both you and them.”My best tip is the daily update,” Bakke said. “This is what I ask them to send me: Enter date and hours worked in total. What they did today. Two challenges encountered. Three questions they have for me. I have my three CEOs send me this update on a daily basis. It has saved me many hours over the past six years.”3. Remember to share your vision with your VA.As founder of The Suitcase Entrepreneur, Natalie Sisson built a successful online business despite travelling the globe as a modern day nomad. She puts her success down to her virtual team, and ensuring the “right” people are on board. This requires not only skillful people, but those invested in the bigger picture.”Share your business vision with your VA, as it gets them on board with the bigger picture of why they do what they do,” said Sisson. “It also gives them ownership over their role, as they know what we’re trying to achieve as a team.”4. Don’t overlook the importance of creating an experience.As a productivity and outsourcing advocate for many years, Ari Meisel built Leverage to provide his clients the virtual assistance they need. He appreciates the importance of communication, especially when communicating with people in different rooms, countries and continents. Instead of relying on email, create an experience that leaves them feeling valued and part of a “real” team (not a virtual one).Related: The 25 Best U.S. Cities for Tech Startups”Embrace asynchronous communication such as Slack, and video messaging with Fika,” Meisel said. “Make the experience as rich as possible for people who are not in the same room as you.”5. Don’t forget that you need a backup plan.As an early pioneer of the virtual assitant movement, Erin Blaskie has helped hundreds of businesses build a virtual team. As with most areas of business, it’s important to have a Plan B.”Create solid back up plans for if the worst case scenario were to happen,” Blaskie said. “I had grown my own company to over 70 clients, and leaned on a few sub-contractors to help fill in the gaps. While this was great for clients to have that one-stop shop, it left me in a precarious situation when my lead web designer disappeared suddenly.”Virtual assistants come and go, and your direction as a business may change. But, the one constant is you, so the processes, back-up plans and alternatives you create today make all the difference tomorrow.6. Don’t give a VA access to every part of your business.As a globetrotting consultant to multinational corporations, Kimanzi Constable has built a strong virtual team that takes care of his itinerary, resources and online brand. But, after one of his own team members went behind his back, Constable learned firsthand the importance of managing your team and giving them (only) the information they need.”Make sure you understand what you’ll give your virtual assistant access to and what you should give them access to,” Constable said. “You shouldn’t let anyone have complete access to every part of your business.”While researching and writing The Successful Mistake, one of the most common mistakes I came across centers around hiring. Your role as an entrepreneur is to grow your business, and this involves you building a team (virtual or otherwise).You will face many obstacles, but by learning from those who have been there and done it, you can avoid a lot of hardship — and focus instead on success, growth and your legacy.Related Video: 4 Automation Hacks to Save You Money and Manpower Free Webinar | Sept 5: Tips and Tools for Making Progress Toward Important Goalslast_img read more

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